What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms that allow participants to trade shares representing the likelihood of future events. These markets harness collective intelligence, enabling speculation on a wide range of topics, including politics, sports, business, technology, cryptocurrencies, and cultural events.

The price of a share reflects the aggregated probability the market assigns to a particular outcome. For example, if a share about an election result is priced at 0.70 USDC, it suggests a 70% chance of that outcome occurring. Users can buy or sell shares based on their expectations, profiting from accurate predictions.

Additionally, prediction markets enable trading based on the fluctuation of share prices, allowing participants to speculate on price increases or decreases over time, even before the event is resolved. This creates a unique market dynamic where both accurate predictions and trading strategies can lead to profit opportunities.

How Triad Works

Triad empowers you to act on your predictions by choosing between two straightforward options:

YES: Predict that the event will happen. If you're right, you'll earn rewards based on the accuracy of your forecast.
NO: Predict that the event won’t happen. If your prediction holds true, you’ll receive rewards proportional to the outcome.

Key Features of Triad Markets

At Triad, all markets are resolved on a 1:1 basis, meaning that when a market closes, the winners receive an amount equivalent to what participants who predicted the opposite outcome contributed, based on the probability of the event occurring. This system ensures fairness and transparency for all users.

How the 1:1 Payment Mechanism Works

Predictions in the Market: Users make predictions about specific outcomes (e.g., predicting who will win an event). Participants who predict different outcomes contribute to the market's shared pool.
Market Value and Probability: The value of contributions is determined by the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring. The more participants predict one outcome, the lower the reward, as the probability of that result is considered higher. Conversely, predictions on lower-probability outcomes offer higher potential rewards, as they are riskier.
The Losing Side Pays the Winner: After the event concludes and the result is known, the winners receive their share of the total contribution. The process works as follows:

Participants who predicted the incorrect outcome lose their contributions and pay the winners.
The amount is distributed according to the total contributions and probabilities. Winners receive amounts based on their predictions and associated probabilities.

Practical Example

In a prediction market:

Two options are available: “Outcome A” and “Outcome B.”
1,000 USDC is contributed to “Outcome A” and 2,000 USDC to “Outcome B.”
If “Outcome A” is correct, participants who predicted “Outcome B” lose their contributions and pay those who predicted “Outcome A,” proportionally to the predicted probabilities.

Fast Markets

How it Works?

Fast Markets are live prediction markets designed for short-term, real-time outcomes. In them, users can speculate on rapid events, such as instant fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices.

For example:

“Will Bitcoin be above 115,312 at 9:15 PM?”

If the price is above that value at the specified time and you voted YES, you win.

If the price is not above, the users who chose NO win.

Fast Markets use real-time price data from the Pyth Network, ensuring fairness, accuracy, and transparency in every result.

Rules and Details

Price Resolution

Market resolution is based exclusively on price data provided by the Pyth Network via Triad.
Prices may vary between aggregators due to differences in liquidity, oracle structures, and consulted pools.
To ensure transparency and fairness, only the Pyth price at the exact moment of resolution is used to determine the outcome.

Market Payouts

Each market is resolved within 24 hours, and payouts are processed within 24 hours after resolution.
Resolution occurs the following day, according to the rules and context defined for each market.

This system ensures that all users compete under fair conditions, with results determined by verifiable and on-chain data.

Transparency Guarantee

The entire process is executed through smart contracts, ensuring that the payment from one side to the other is carried out automatically, quickly, and accurately, with no intermediaries.